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What is Risk?

What is Risk Management?

What is a Risk Management Plan?

What are the typical outputs of UnRiskIT?

What is the Central Limit Theorem and how does UnRiskIT® manage it?

Is UnRiskIT® a Microsoft Excel Add-In?

What is Risk?
Risk is a concept that denotes a potential negative impact to some characteristic of value that may arise from a future event, or we can say that "Risks are events or conditions that may occur, and whose occurrence, if it does take place, has a harmful or negative effect". Exposure to the consequences of uncertainty constitutes a risk. In everyday usage, risk is often used synonymously with the probability of a known loss. "Risk communication and risk perception are essential factors for all human decision making". Source:

What is Risk Management?
Risk management: covers all the processes involved in identifying, assessing and judging risks, assigning ownership, taking actions to mitigate or anticipate them, and monitoring and reviewing progress.

What is a Risk Management Plan?
A plan that imposes management tools to reduce the risks to an acceptable level. A Risk Management Plan is a document prepared by a project manager to foresee risks, to estimate the effectiveness, and to create response plans to mitigate them. It also consists of the risk assessment matrix.

What are the typical outputs of UnRiskIT®?
Typical outputs of UnRiskIT® are:

A variety of Reports:
- Risked AFE Detailed Report
- Project Detail Report
- Project Summary Report
- Risk Management Report
- WellView Activity and AFE Export Report

A variety of graphs and charts:
- Drilling Cycle Cost Chart
- Frequency Charts (or ‘Bell’ curves) Cost, Time and Risk
- Drilling Depth Chart
- Depth versus Cost Chart
- Tornado Charts (Risk, Cost)
- Total Risk Chart

All of the reports can be exported to MS Office Excel. All of the graphs can be copied in any MS Office application such as MS Word, MS Excel or MS PowerPoint.

What is the Central Limit Theorem and how does UnRiskIT® manage it?

The central limit theorem (CLT) states that the sum of a large number of independent and identically-distributed random variables will be approximately normally distributed (i.e., following a Gaussian distribution, or bell-shaped curve) if the random variables have a finite variance.

Simply put, if you have a large number of variables in a Monte Carlo simulation then you will experience a narrowing of the overall outcome as the number of variables increase.  And the range of outcomes might not be acceptable/reasonable to you.

To address this issue we can make some intelligent correlations between variables, making them dependent in some manner.  You may logically ascertain that as time increases with a particular activity then the trouble associated with that activity may increase as well.  UnRiskIT® provides for a logical and transparent means to define these correlations which results in a more realistic range of possible outcomes.

Is UnRiskIT® a Microsoft - Excel Add-In?

No. Unlike other risk solutions, UnRiskIT® is a standalone software program that is specifically designed for the petroleum professional.  That means that you do not have to learn how to program or plug in generic subroutines, instead, with UnRiskIT® you only have to create your logistical flow of operations in terms and language that you are familiar with.

more to come...

Warrior Technology
Services, Inc.

PO Box 11585
Spring, Texas 77391
Phone: 281-444-5340
e-fax: 281-840-6866

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